Technologies and Changeover

Technology as well as Transition

Background and long term trends:
The very best summary from the history associated with information technologies is really a graph which shows the actual calculations for each second for each $1, 000 through 1900 in order to today. [1][2] (Attempt googling information per 2nd per $1, 000) What we should see whenever we look from these numbers is rapid growth.

Up take from the printing push took centuries; uptake from the radio as well as TV required decades; uptake from the computer and cell phones took many years. The kitsch but astonishing comparison that’s usually trotted away in conversations such as this is that there’s over 100 occasions more processing power within our smart telephone than there is in the actual Apollo Room Program.

Every time we reach the capability of 1 technology, a brand new one seems that requires the technology to another level. Vacuum cleaner tubes had been replaced through transistors, that have been replaced through chips, which will likely be replaced through 3 dimensional self-organising molecular circuits or maybe even quantum computer systems.

I just like the declaration by Beam Kurzweil within his TED talk[3] this exponential development is caused by worldwide disorderly behaviour so when we notice from the distance we begin to see the pattern and also the trend.

I also such as the observation in the same speak that whilst we can’t predict the actual behaviour of the single molecule we are able to predict the actual behaviour associated with gasses. While all of us cannot forecast the behaviour of the individual, we are able to predict the actual behaviour associated with crowds. This particular, combined along with Philip Rosenthal’s observation[4] that after the internet had been built nobody knew or even had time for you to think what it might become, provides us having a glimpse to the nature associated with evolution. Development is:

Chaotic in the micro degree
Predictable in the macro degree
Out of anyone person’s manage
Happens via market (with regard to want of the better phrase) causes
Is rapid


In the actual 1950’s forecasts about life within the year 2000 mainly revolved close to a continuation from the transport trend; flying vehicles, space journey etc. Hardly ever was the actual revolution within ICT forecasted. While individuals like Beam Kurzweil could possibly predict the actual continuation from the deflation associated with price and also the increase within the computing energy of systems, it is actually unlikely that people can predict the region that may have the the majority of profound impact.

“We will flourish in reverse engineering the mind by the actual 2020’s” Beam Kurzweil. [5] And based on Kurzweil’s numbers, it is going to be available with regard to $1, 000!!!

The crucial areas which technology has effects on presently consist of:



Oddly enough, from my personal experience dealing with numerous companies within the pharmaceutical sectors, the revolution within the chemistry industry appears to be passing as well as being replaced through the biotech business. Pharmaceutical companies’ pipelines associated with new medicines are slowing compared to the heydays from the 50’s, 60’s, 70’s, as well as 80’s.

According in order to Jeremy Butler[6] you will find four crucial stages within the development of it. They tend to be:

pre-mechanical (3000 B . C . – 1450 ADVERT)
mechanised (1450–1840)
electromechanical (1840–1940)
electronic (1940 to provide)

Interpersonal issues:
There isn’t any doubt which ICT offers provided us using the opportunity to become more conscious of issues as well as incidents by having an increased width and level. While the amount and pace of info has significantly increased, the caliber of that info and in which the public decide to focus it’s attention continues to be in query.

ICT may also exacerbate the actual well recorded psychological choice for verification bias. [7] Customers of ICT can look for and discover information to aid current biases, wrong assumptions or even factually wrong information. You may also join groups to help your personal ignorance.

There’s an increased capability to capture as well as store details about us. This will be used for negative and positive purposes. Yes many people use it to promote and promote … as well as perhaps that isn’t a poor thing … a minimum of now I just sit via ads with regard to things I’m actually thinking about. The drawback may be the reduction within serendipity from the discovery associated with something new beyond my present interests.

Indeed, we shed privacy as well as perhaps even the identity, and what we should gain is actually sharper details about how all of us act and how you can improve the society as well as environment to higher suit the preferences.

You will find an increasing quantity of studies that claim that ICT is actually rewiring the brains. Professor George Patton in the Royal Children’s Hospital’s Center for Teenage Health within Melbourne states he views kids who participate in electronic media for the entire day as well as believes it’s rewiring the mind. [8]

Concerns round the social results of ICT consist of:

decreased interest span
a choice for thickness of information instead of depth
increase within obsessive behaviours for example ‘liking’ points on Myspace and continuous monitoring associated with incoming communications
Increase within distractibility


Technology fiction or even fact:

Following reading Mike Harris upon free will[9], Robert Wright upon evolutionary mindset, [10] hearing Ray Kurzweil[11] as well as seeing such things as Harvard bioengineers as well as geneticists keeping 700 terabytes associated with info within 1 gram while using double helix associated with DNA[12] … And also you start in order to wonder which perhaps existence is binary as well as perhaps we aren’t that far from having the ability to create existence itself!!!